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Government CIO Outlook | Saturday, May 01, 2021
Surprisingly, vastly transformed national security notions will aid in the advancement of global technological civilizations to unprecedented levels of openness and progress.
Fremont, CA: We cannot be confident that recently expedited arms reduction negotiations will result in additional large-scale reductions in offensive nuclear weapons, but the likelihood must be regarded as extremely high. As a result, the same superpowers that have previously devoted enormous resources to the imperatives of military preparedness and deterrence—as well as to erecting barriers to the internationalization of cutting-edge technology—will now have to focus on the imperatives of verification.
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Of course, the development of remote probing technologies such as spy satellites will be accelerated. There will also be a new dimension: agreed-upon, close-in, detailed inspections of each other's facilities and production by land and air, helped by newly developed technical instruments. Without an extraordinary level of transparency, the possibility of the other side's cheating would have prevented the agreement from being reached in the first place.
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In the European theater, technological advances will soon make it impossible to calculate military power by counting men, tanks, and airplanes. In terms of pure firepower, advanced electronics and robots can already make a defensive conventional force more successful than an aggressive army greater in size. Intelligent robotic weapons can detect and kill enemy tanks, planes, and military formations. Superior electronic warfare capabilities can allow NATO forces to jam Russian communications while stopping them from jamming ours. Similarly, computer-assisted battle information management enables highly targeted military action.
More transparency, more verification technologies, and many more defensive weaponry will so characterize the military world's industry. High-volume production of semiconductor chips, computer equipment, and precision electromechanical equipment will be required in this environment. Although H-bombs do not immediately lead to consumer industrial products, military computer networks, fast semiconductors, and electromechanical robots do. They are distant relatives of technological apparatus essential to the more efficient creation of nearly anything, and they promise to improve a wide range of civilian industrial, consumer, governmental, and professional activities.
Given these strategic imperatives, all nations will eagerly pursue the civilian hardware and software that will naturally spring from military research; in the meantime, the line between what is essentially consumer significance and what is of military use will become increasingly blurred. Non-Communist global technical businesses will gradually join into more and more initiatives with the Soviet Union and Eastern European states—programs that will speed technology transfer and enhance technology-based production in these nations. Their leaders will understand that economic prosperity can only be sustained if they maintain reciprocal openness to the outside world.
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