Strengthening the Effectiveness of Export Control Enforcement in the Face of Geopolitical Challenges

As geopolitical challenges intensify, effectively enforcing export controls is crucial to safeguard US national security interests.

FREMONT, CA: As technology takes center stage in strategic competition with Russia and China, export controls have become a crucial element of US foreign policy. The United States aims to restrict these countries' access to advanced technology in response to geopolitical concerns. However, the focus of the debate has primarily been on the application of export controls, overshadowing the importance of effectively administering and enforcing these controls. Export control enforcement presents a number of challenges for the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS). It emphasizes the need for technological modernization and increased resources to meet the evolving threat landscape.

Under the Department of Commerce, the BIS plays a vital role in overseeing export controls. However, it faces significant challenges posed by sophisticated smuggling and export control evasion networks, particularly those supported by Russia and China. Investigations have revealed that downed Russian weapons systems in Ukraine contain US and allied components, indicating the failure of export controls. With Russia actively seeking ways to evade controls, BIS must enhance its capacity and productivity for effective enforcement to counter an increasingly complex geostrategic environment.

Decades of underinvestment have left BIS ill-equipped to fulfill its role effectively. The agency's enabling technology is outdated, hampering its ability to monitor trade flows and identify suspicious activities. The major government databases BIS analysts use lack essential functionality, regularly crashing. Instead of utilizing advanced technologies like knowledge graph databases and machine learning, analysts primarily rely on basic tools like Google searches and Microsoft Excel. To address this, BIS must embrace modern, data-driven digital technologies to significantly enhance its export control enforcement capabilities.

Investments in digital technology, including artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, can revolutionize BIS's enforcement capabilities. Relatively modest investments could significantly increase analyst productivity, potentially up to 5 to 10 times greater efficiency. However, BIS's budget has not kept pace with the growing number of export-controlled items, the evolving threat landscape, and the increasing sophistication of evasion techniques. Additional resources are required to fully leverage the current international momentum behind US-led export controls and address the urgent need for technological advancements.

Based on comparable data-driven digital technology modernization efforts by other US government agencies with similar missions, it is estimated that an annual appropriation of approximately USD 25 million for five years would be necessary to modernize BIS's technology infrastructure. This investment would enable BIS to process and analyze vast amounts of government and open-source data, improving collaboration and automating detection processes. Furthermore, to support the increased workload resulting from enhanced enforcement capabilities, an additional USD 18.4 million and 48 positions annually for the Export Enforcement organization and USD 1.2 million for classified facility space are recommended. Thus, the total budgetary increase needed for BIS amounts to USD 44.6 million annually.

Significant investments in technological modernization and increased resources are essential to overcome the shortcomings faced by the Bureau of Industry and Security. By embracing data-driven digital technologies like AI and machine learning, BIS can enhance its capacity to monitor trade flows, detect suspicious activities, and mitigate evasion efforts. The recommended budgetary increase of USD 44.6 million annually will not only address the pressing issues posed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine but also establish a foundation for future mission impact and collaboration with other US government agencies. With adequate resources and advanced technology, BIS can strengthen its role in protecting critical technologies and ensuring a robust export control enforcement regime.